Newscaster says 1/2" of ice adds about 500 lbs to a power line. They are talking an inch or more here. The math isn't good.
Definitely not. Fingers crossed for you guys.
One of my coworkers is an amateur meteorologist and posted the following for NY/NJ area:
This is gonna suck.
So... in previous storms, you've seen me talk about air temperature and how it doesn't always get colder as the elevation rises. When it gets cold at ground level, warmer at the mid level, and cold again at the upper levels of the atmosphere, we get sleet. If it is warmer at higher levels and cools at lower levels, we get freezing rain. Well, on Sunday, due to how this storm is likely to evolve, a warmer middle layer of air will work its way northward through the storm, mixing sleet into the precipitation.
We will likely start out with all snow (and we could see substantial snowfall rates during the morning on Sunday). In the afternoon, sleet will work its way in for many. Then it will change back into snow Sunday night into Monday.
How much, you ask? By the end, I expect the total accumulation to look like 6-12" of snow, but like a reverse Oreo: Instead of a fluffy, delicious cream center, the sleet will comprise the middle, which is neither fluffy nor creamy. I anticipate that as much as 0.3-0.5" of sleet will fall.
What could go wrong with this forecast?
1) The warm layer doesn't move as far north as it could, which would result in a lot more snow.
2) The warm layer moves in faster and stays longer, which would result in less snow and more ice.
3) We see really intense snowfall in some areas, which robs the storm energy from other areas, and they would see what is called a "dry slot".
4) Depending on the temps at the start, snow ratios could be higher, which could bump some or many in Northern NJ into the 12-16" totals.
5) None of these things happens because the models are not being upgraded or fed good data due to NWS funding cuts.
Schools will likely have a snow day on Monday. Power loss is a possibility due to the weight of heavy snow and sleet.
I do NOT advise trying to clear the snow that falls early to get ahead of it. When the sleet falls, it'll be easier to clear if you have snow beneath it. My advice is to wait until it changes completely back to snow before clearing.
