Potential for Tropical Activity in the Gulf of Mexico this week.
Robust tropical wave is bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to Cuba and the Bahamas. This wave still lacks a defined circulation center, but there are signs that one is trying to develop on the western edge of the deep convection, just north of Cuba. However, these cyclonic circulations have come and gone over the past several days as they have tracked into dry and more stable air, causing them to weaken. Upper-level wind shear over the past several days has also been a negative factor against this system strengthening.
The system will approach the Florida Straits today and should enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. Weak upper-level wind shear will support development and possible strengthening along the way, but on the other hand, dry air in its path will prohibit development, so it remains to be seen how this feature will unfold over the weekend. Model consensus shows a path to the northwest and north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico the early to middle part of next week. It is not out of the question that this feature strengthens into a tropical depression or storm at this time.
The main impacts of this robust tropical wave will be flooding downpours and gusty winds across South Florida and the northern Bahamas today into Monday. Flash flooding and possible mudslides in the higher terrain will impact Cuba through this weekend. A track closer to Florida next week could lead to flooding rain and gusty winds along the west coast of Florida.
